Global Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Agricultural Trade and Value Chains, Commodity Prices, and Cross-border Investment

Project Summary

This research will generate new knowledge regarding the global implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for agricultural trade and value chains, commodity prices, and cross-border investment. Beyond the severe humanitarian consequences, the war in Ukraine has far-reaching economic implications for global agricultural and food markets. Both countries export staple grains, oilseeds, vegetable oil and meal, fertilizer, and energy products. To provide robust quantitative evidence on the short-run and long-run trade and value chain implications and the region-specific global reallocation and welfare effects, we will use a newly constructed dataset on trade sanctions and export bans imposed in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, high-frequency trade, and detailed value chain data, and theory-consistent empirical models. Insights from this applied trade analysis will inform an empirical assessment of commodity prices building on advanced machine learning techniques and food security implications using national and household-level food security data from developing countries. We will utilize detailed firm-level investment data and state-of-the-art causal inference methods to shed light on the global implications of economic sanctions and investment uncertainty for cross-border capital flows in the agricultural and food industry. This analysis of the economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will provide robust quantitative evidence regarding a critical driver of global trade, commodity price, and investment uncertainty. Consequently, the project will deliver essential knowledge on the functioning of agricultural markets under economic and trade uncertainty and enhance market efficiency and performance. Insights drawn from this research will help inform federal policies that foster the competitiveness of U.S. farmers and ranchers and increase their participation and success in global agricultural and food markets.

Project Objectives

The research will accomplish the following objectives:

Objective 1: Assess the trade effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and evaluate global reallocation and welfare implications.

Objective 2: Estimate agricultural GVC changes in response to the Russia-Ukraine war and measure the causal effects on GVC participation and positioning.

Objective 3: Evaluate the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on agricultural commodity markets and food security.

Objective 4: Quantify the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on investment activities in the agricultural and food industry..

Funding Agencies

National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Grant No. 2023-67023-39114 [Link]

Foreign Agricultural Service, Cooperative Agreement FX22TA-10960R015

Publications

• The Russia-Ukraine War and Global Trade Reallocations, Economics Letters, 2023, 226: 111075. [Paper]

• The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Grain and Oilseed Trade, with Soojung Ahn and Dongin Kim, Agribusiness, 2023, 39: 291–299. [Paper]

Work in Progress

• The War for Grain: How the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impacted the Grain Futures Market, with Yasin Yildirim, under review. [Paper]

• Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Wake of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, with Raghav Goyal, under review. [Paper]

• Did Grain Futures Prices Overreact to the Russia-Ukraine War?, with Colin A. Carter. [Paper]

Research Team